Tag Archives: Rohstoffe
Lynas Corp: Wichtigster Minenbetreiber Seltener Erden außerhalb Chinas
Soll auf keinen Fall eine Empfehlung sein, im Gegenteil. Die Risiken bei dieser Aktien überwiegen meiner Meinung nach die Chancen. Aber der Name dieses Unternehmen ist mir immer wieder untergekommen.
ISIN: AU000000LYC6
Pro:
+ steigende Bedeutung von seltenen Erden/Metallen: steigende Preise und Exportbeschränkungen seitens China (wichtigster Lieferant seltener Erden)
+ Betreiber von Mount Weld Australien (bislang größte bekannte Vorkommen von Metallen der Seltenen Erden außerhalb von China, Quelle: Wikipedia)
+ Analysten (10 Kaufen, 1 Halten, 2 Verkaufen)
Kontra:
- hohe Investitionskosten für die Expansion der Minen
- anhaltend hohe Verluste in den vergangen Jahren, möglicher Turnaround erst für 2013 erwartet
- Verzögerungen beim Verarbeitungswerk in Malaysia (sollte bereits 2011 fertig sein), aufgrund möglicher Schäden für Menschen und Umwelt
- Wechselkursrisiken (USD, AUD)
Quellen: Bloomberg, DB Research
Deutsche Bank Research Commodities Quaterly September 2011
Commodities Quarterly
Table of Contents
Commodity Views ………………………………. 2
#1 Executive Summary ………………………… 3
#2 Trade Recommendations ………………… 4
#3 Commodity Indices …………………………. 8
#4 Global Macro………………………………… 12
#5 Crude Oil …………………………………….. 16
#6 Brent-WTI Spread …………………………. 22
#7 Global Refining ……………………………… 24
#8 Global Refined Products ……………….. 28
#9 US Natural Gas ……………………………… 33
#10 Thermal Coal ………………………………. 36
#11 German Power ……………………………. 40
#12 European Gas …………………………….. 43
#13 Precious Metals ………………………….. 46
#14 Gold Option ………………………………… 50
#15 PGMs ………………………………………… 51
#16 Industrial Metals …………………………. 55
#17 Agriculture …………………………………. 66
#18 Palm Oil …………………………………….. 69
#19 Rubber ………………………………………. 71
#20 EU Carbon Markets ……………………… 73
Commodities Chartbook ……………………. 76
Commodity Price Forecasts ……………….. 83
Global Economic Indicators ………………… 85
Glossary …………………………………………… 86
Correlation Matrix………..………………. 87
–> Commodities as an Asset Class: Financial markets are in a state of extreme uncertainty with outcomes binary and largely politically driven, in our view. We advise cautious growth bulls to go long the DBLCI Apex while outright growth bears would be wise to go long the DB Commodity Harvest index.
–> Crude Oil: Oil markets are being hit by economic worries, the potential return of Libyan oil exports and financial factors such as a weaker US equity market and a stronger US dollar. We believe the most dangerous threat to oil is if world growth falls below 3% in 2012.
–> Refined Products: Slower growth expectations will weigh on refinery margins going forward. However, refinery closures and a slower pace of capacity additions in 2012 mean the global refinery balance is unlikely to develop a significant surplus on par with 2009 levels.
–> US Natural Gas: We see US natural gas prices approaching a low point in the fourth quarter of this year, but the risk of economic turmoil and continuing supply strength could extend this period of weakness into 2012.
–> EU Power, Gas & Emissions: We are bullish on German power on capacity retirements and full auctioning of CO2 allowances in 2013. In European gas, we maintain our view that oil-indexation will remain important while we expect thermal coal markets will be increasingly oversupplied through 2015.
–> Precious Metals: The collapse in precious metal prices and specifically gold and silver prices may take weeks to repair. However, the commitment by the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold, central bank diversification and European sovereign risks are maintaining our bullish outlook.
–> Industrial Metals/Materials: We expect the complex will face ongoing headwinds with copper trading at rich levels of valuation. We expect aluminium will outperform the rest of the complex if risk aversion is sustained.
–> Agriculture: From a global inventory perspective, corn is the most precarious market and prone to price spikes. However, from a valuation point of view corn is trading rich and this may prove a liability in an environment of risk reduction.
Report: Link
Erste Bank Global Strategy Q4 2011
Die wichtigsten Vorlaufindikatoren und das Konsumentenvertrauen haben sich stark eingetrübt. Dementsprechend sollte sich das globale Wachstum weiter verlangsamen. Zusätzliche Abwärtsrisiken kommen von der Eurozone Staatsverschuldungskrise, welche auch zunehmend Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft haben sollte.
ANLEIHEN
Obwohl wir mittelfristig eher mit moderaten Renditeanstiegen rechnen, sehen wir im Q4 auch Abwärtsrisiken. Bei Firmenanleihen sollten gute Fundamentaldaten Investment Grade-Anleihen unterstützen. High Yield-Unternehmensanleihen sollten gemieden werden.
WÄHRUNGEN
Der Euro sollte in Folge der Verschuldungskrise weiterhin unter Druck bleiben, insbesondere falls Zinssenkungen in der Eurozone absehbar wären. Dies sollte sowohl den Dollar als auch den Yen relativ zum Euro gesehen unterstützen, auch durch den Wegfall anderer „sicherer Häfen“. Gold sollte vom fragilen Umfeld und den negative Realzinsen rund um den Globus profitieren.
AKTIEN
Wir sehen in einigen Märkten Anzeichen einer Bodenbildung und erwarten aufgrund der
stark ausgeprägt negativen Einstellung zu Aktien das Potenzial für einen leichten Anstieg in Q4.
Report: Link
English Version:
Economy
Economic growth will be very moderate in the Eurozone and the USA, and a recession cannot be ruled out. Growth rates have also recently edged lower in the emerging ecomomies. The high inflation in that region remains a problem and caps the potential of interest rate cuts.
BONDS
Key-lending rates should remain low, or even be cut, on a global scale due to the existing uncertainties and the fragile economic situation. Although we expect yields to rise moderately in the medium term, we also see downside risks for the fourth quarter. Good company fundamentals should support investment grade corporate bonds, whereas we would advise against taking positions in high-yield government bonds.
CURRENCIES
The euro should remain under pressure due to the government debt crisis, especially if interest rate cuts were to become probable in the Eurozone. This should support both the US dollar and the yen relative to the euro, not the least due to the disappearance of other safe havens. Gold should climb to US 1,834 per ounce.
EQUITIES
Shares have probably priced in the majority of the feared economic decline already. The earnings estimates of the companies have recently been revised downwards, but the absolute earnings level remains high. We can see clear signs of bottoming out in some markets as well as potential for a slight increase in the fourth quarter due to the extremely negative attitude towards equities in the past weeks.
Quelle: Erste Group Research
