Die Voest kann auch nicht zaubern und ist natürlich auch von der Weltkonjunktur abhängig. Die Vergangenheit und die aktuelle Auftragslage ist noch gut, doch die Zukunft ist wieder einmal ungewiss. Das drückt natürlich auch die Aktie.

Hier das Fazit der Erste Bank zur Aktie der Voestalpine:

– We made no big changes to our FY11/12e estimates, but lower our FY12/13e EPS estimate by 18.5%, due to the deteriorating outlook for the broader economy. We cut our target price from EUR 41 to EUR 35, but confirm our Buy recommendation.

– Debt problems in Europe and the US, combined with weakening leading economic indicators (e.g. PMIs) and consumer confidence, potentially pose great challenges for global economic growth. Up to now, voestalpine’s most important customer industries (except construction) have still faced a very positive order situation. In particular, the most important customers, German premium car producers, reported strong production and sales in July and August 2011.

– We expect EBIT to decline to 27% q/q in 2Q11/12, due to capacity expansion in the Steel division, seasonality and destocking among customers, resulting from the uncertain outlook (inventories, however, are not as excessive as they were in 2008). As the order situation is still favorable, and with new steel capacities available, 3Q11/12 EBIT should see a material rebound.

– Despite declining spot market steel prices during summer, CEO Eder expects no ‘major’ changes of the Steel division’s average contract prices for the months to come – voestalpine’s contract prices had not yet fully reflected the previous upward movement.

Quelle: Erste Bank